There are generally four time frames used when business people are making predictions:
- in a year
- next 1-2 years
- next 3-5 years
- next 5-10 years
If you see a business person making such a prediction, this is what they mean:
- in a year: the prediction will happen
- next 1-2 years: the prediction should happen
- next 3-5 years: the prediction could happen, but not soon
- next 5-10 years: they have no idea!
For any business prediction, the time frame determines the probability. If they say in a year, they either are doing it themselves or someone they know is. If it is 1-2 years, it won’t happen this year, but someone is working on it. If they say 3-5 years, then it’s likely not in progress, but there is talk of working on it.
The only prediction that is useless is 5-10 years. If someone says 5-10 years, they are saying something like “I don’t want to say it will NEVER happen, but it is not even close to coming to fruition, so I will predict 5-10 because who is even going to come back and ask me about it in a decade from now?” 🙂
Something to bear in mind the next time you hear a business prediction.
Smart People I Know 
I suspect this is generally true of all predictions, although it probably depends a lot on the rate of change in the area of interest. WIRED in https://www.wired.com/story/history-predictions-change-precipice-future/ suggested “We don’t have to know exactly what’s going to happen and when to get ready for it. We can peel our eyes and hearts away from the pull of the cliff and focus on the structures that will keep us safe, that will support us in the meantime, that we can improve and act upon right now.”
Good points, Norbert!