There are generally four time frames used when business people are making predictions:

• in a year
• next 1-2 years
• next 3-5 years
• next 5-10 years

If you see a business person making such a prediction, this is what they mean:

• in a year: the prediction will happen
• next 1-2 years: the prediction should happen
• next 3-5 years: the prediction could happen, but not soon
• next 5-10 years: they have no idea!

For any business prediction, the time frame determines the probability. If they say in a year, they either are doing it themselves or someone they know is. If it is 1-2 years, it won’t happen this year, but someone is working on it. If they say 3-5 years, then it’s likely not in progress, but there is talk of working on it.

The only prediction that is useless is 5-10 years. If someone says 5-10 years, they are saying something like “I don’t want to say it will NEVER happen, but it is not even close to coming to fruition, so I will predict 5-10 because who is even going to come back and ask me about it in a decade from now?” 🙂

Something to bear in mind the next time you hear a business prediction.