Tag: president

How to predict who will win the US Presidential Election?


Here’s two ways to predict who will win the presidential election:

First: look at the 13 keys of Allan Lichtman, Presidential Predictions Guru. According to Lichtman, there are 13 keys to determine who will win the next election:

  1. Midterm gains
  2. Incumbency
  3. Primary Contest
  4. Third Party
  5. Short-term economy
  6. Long-term economy
  7. Policy Change
  8. Social Unrest
  9. White House Scandal
  10. Incumbent Charisma
  11. Challenger Charisma
  12. Foreign Policy Failure
  13. Foreign Policy Success

Of the first 11, Lichtman says Trump comes out ahead on 1, 2, and 10 (in italics) while Harris comes out ahead on the rest (e.g. there was no primary contest, no third party, the economy is doing well, no policy issues, no major social unrest, and no scandals for her.)  That’s enough to assume she will win the election, regardless of foreign policy (which he skipped over).

Mind you, based on this, Biden was set to win the election, but I am not alone in thinking that was not going to happen.

Still, I think there is alot to agree with in the 13 keys. As people go to vote one or more of these keys will be on their minds as they cast their ballot. Check out the link above to get more insights from the man saying Harris is the next US President.

Second: look at the Electoral College map and the swing states. That’s certainly what the candidates are doing on their campaigns. Two states in particular could make all the difference as to who is the next US President: Georgia and Pennsylvania. The Washington Post takes a closer look at the two states that loom largest in 2024 election.

How can you learn about Project 2025? Three ways

If you are curious about Project 2025 — and if you are an American, you should be — there are at least three ways you can learn more about it.

The first way is to go to a web site set up to describe it, Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project.

Personally, and as a progressive person, I found this the best way to understand the effects it could have, 25and.me: How Does Project 2025 Affect Me?

However, if all that is hard to get a handle on, or if you want something more neutral, you can also check out: Project 2025 in Wikipedia.

Chances are if Donald Trump is reelected president, many of the things proposed in Project 2025 will come to fruition in the four years he is in office. So before you vote, read up on Project 2025 and know what you might be in store for.

On RFK Jr and the people that are supporting him

RFK Jr is in the news a lot recently. One obvious reason is that he is trying to run for President. The other reason is because some of the worst of people are jumping on his bandwagon and amplifying his campaign.

If you are unsure about him, then I recommend this piece on RFK Jr for several reasons. First, it sums up how I think I now think about RFK Jr:

His noxious views on vaccines, the origin of AIDS, the alleged dangers of wi-fi and other forms of junk science deserve no wide hearing. Polls showing he’s favored by 20 percent of likely Democratic voters over President Biden are almost as laughable as Kennedy’s views. It’s early; he’s got iconic American name recognition; and there’s almost always an appetite, among Democrats anyway, for anybody but the incumbent.

Second, it also has a list of articles at the beginning that debunk RFK Jr’s ridiculous claims. And if that’s not enough, here’s more on RFK Jr from the New York Times and People Magazine.

As for the people jumping on his bandwagon and amplifying him, here’s a break down on the horrible harassment of  Dr Peter Hotez by Joe Rogen, Elon Musk and others. As for why you don’t want to debate science on a podcast, here’s a good piece on what it’s like to go on  Joe Rogan and debate anything 

Here’s hoping RFK Jr and the cranks he attracts fade into the background soon.

A better way to follow the US presidential race…

..is to follow this, from Bloomberg:  Who’s Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?

You can still read the news and follow along, state by state, but what really matters more and more is the delegate count.

One thing that surprised me: right now, Ted Cruz is alot closer to Donald Trump than I imagined. Obviously there is a way to go still, but he is doing well. Will Cruz win? I think the odds are against him, but right now they are not insurmountable.

As for the other side, I believe Hillary Clinton is going to win, regardless of the Michigan surprise showing of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is performing better than many imagined, but she has a big lead in delegates and that will only get larger as we go along.

How to tell who the next president of the US will be (ahem, Hillary Clinton)

There’s two ways to tell who will be the next president of the United States.

  1. Listen to the pundits: The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton – Bloomberg Politics
  2. Follow the betters: 2016 Presidential Election – Next President bet | betfair.com

In this case, at this moment, they are both in agreement: Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. Now, the election is so very far away, anything can happen, a week is a long time in politics, blah blah blah, but right now it is hers to lose.

If you ask me, ignore the pundits and follow the betters: the latter are rarely wrong. Read the pundits if you want to know why she is winning.

 

The best thing you will read about the upcoming 2016 US Presidential election (and why you can pay much less attention until then)

Check out this map:

And then read this piece by a very realistic US Republican on the upcoming US presidential election: A reality-check on the 2014 results

If you are a fan of Hillary Clinton* then it is great news. If you are a supporter of anyone else, you will see why it is going to be very difficult for anyone from the GOP to become president in 2016.

But don’t take my word for it: read the article. Bookmark it until next year. It’s very likely going to be true, regardless of the thousands of articles and millions of words that will be written between now and election day.

(* Yes, in theory, Bernie Sanders could be the nominee. In practice, I think it is very unlikely.)