How to predict who will win the US Presidential Election?


Here’s two ways to predict who will win the presidential election:

First: look at the 13 keys of Allan Lichtman, Presidential Predictions Guru. According to Lichtman, there are 13 keys to determine who will win the next election:

  1. Midterm gains
  2. Incumbency
  3. Primary Contest
  4. Third Party
  5. Short-term economy
  6. Long-term economy
  7. Policy Change
  8. Social Unrest
  9. White House Scandal
  10. Incumbent Charisma
  11. Challenger Charisma
  12. Foreign Policy Failure
  13. Foreign Policy Success

Of the first 11, Lichtman says Trump comes out ahead on 1, 2, and 10 (in italics) while Harris comes out ahead on the rest (e.g. there was no primary contest, no third party, the economy is doing well, no policy issues, no major social unrest, and no scandals for her.)  That’s enough to assume she will win the election, regardless of foreign policy (which he skipped over).

Mind you, based on this, Biden was set to win the election, but I am not alone in thinking that was not going to happen.

Still, I think there is alot to agree with in the 13 keys. As people go to vote one or more of these keys will be on their minds as they cast their ballot. Check out the link above to get more insights from the man saying Harris is the next US President.

Second: look at the Electoral College map and the swing states. That’s certainly what the candidates are doing on their campaigns. Two states in particular could make all the difference as to who is the next US President: Georgia and Pennsylvania. The Washington Post takes a closer look at the two states that loom largest in 2024 election.

2 thoughts on “How to predict who will win the US Presidential Election?”

  1. The challenge with the “13 keys” approach is that voters in only a small number of states will decide the outcome of the 2024 USA election, and races are very tight in those states. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2024/sep/03/electoral-votes-swing-state-margins-explained drills down on how the 2020/2016 elections were won. Gerrymandering remains an issue where – although ten years old, https://www.vox.com/2014/4/15/5604284/us-elections-are-rigged-but-canada-knows-how-to-fix-them discusses the differences between how electoral boundaries at set in the USA and Canada.

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