Possibly. Off his bang-on analysis of the recent U.S. elections, Nate Silver now Predicts the Winners of the 2009 Oscars in New York Magazine.
Like alot of people, I think Nate is not only a smart guy, but a top notch analyst. So whether or not he has jumped the shark will be determined after Oscar night. Time, indeed, will tell.
Smart People I Know 
Well, Nate didn’t do too badly, but he was not 6 for 6, either. I think he should stick to politics, where he is stellar.