The Fall. A time of change. Here’s some thoughts on what changes have occurred recently (and what stayed the same) in my usual ramblings for a new season  (i.e. the September 2024 edition of my not-a-newsletter newsletter)


It’s the Fall, a season of change. Let take some time and look at what’s changed and what hasn’t since I last posted.

The obvious thing that hasn’t changed is I am still writing newsletter.  Thanks for continuing to read these odd newsletterish posts of mine. I’ve been writing them since the beginning of the pandemic. There’s a certain pleasure in adding another link in the chain.

Olympics: Since the last newsletter, we’ve had the Paris Olympics. That was a nice change for many people. It was a bit unusual, as it used the city for much of the venue. But since it was Paris, the venue was beautiful. Speaking of beauty, here are some of the most beautiful moments of the Olympics. And here are some of the best moments.

While there were plenty of amazing stories coming out of the Olympics, This  one of one Olympic ahtlete who competed at age 61 caught my attention.

Pandemic: you might not think there is anything changing regarding the pandemic, but there was a spike in covid over the summer. (Get those fall vaccines when you can.) More on that wave, here.

The kids who were preschool age during the pandemic are now in classes and struggling. Just one of the many long term impacts of that period.

Inflation: lots of good change on this front. Inflation  is finally below 3% in the US. Grocery prices are finally falling. Dining out is getting cheaper, at least in the fast food industry, as this and this explain. All good to see.

Work: Some companies are trying to get employees to change their routine and stop working from home. Some, like Amazon, are forcing employees to return to office (RTO) fulltime. Are there also layoffs coming down the pike at Amazon? I am guessing yes. After all, weaponizing RTO is an easy way to shed employees. And while they might be able to get away with this in the US, they should expect legal issues in the UK.

As time progresses, who knows how many offices there will even be in the future? The Times has a good piece on how banks are quietly dumping  commercial real estate loans.

USA: it’s an election year in America, which should bring in much change come November.  If you want to understand who is leading in the US polls, read this.

A big part of the presidential election comes down to certain states. This piece on  swing states explains that for you and why it’s important.

Have you heard of sanewashing?  Poynter explains what it means. It will be interesting to see if journalists can allow Trump’s words speak for themselves, or whether they will continue the practice.

When it comes to supporting a presidential candidate, are the Silicon Valley elites right wing or left wing? As this piece explains, it depends. Some, like Peter Thiel, are very conservative to the point of being directly involved in sponsoring  JD Vance, Trump’s VP choice, among others.

As for American conservatives on the whole, they’ve had some big wins with regards to US supreme court term decisions lately. Here”s a good piece the dives deeper and assesses the radically right wing Roberts court.

With all these wins, what might conservatives in the US come after next? Possibly no fault divorce. And if you are wondering how conservatives are so successful getting their way legally, here’s something on how they game the US supreme court.

On last American item. I think the fact that  insurance companies are going to try to stop losing money because of  climate change is going to be a big thing politically and otherwise.

China: things continue to change in China. The government is struggling to improve  the  economy. The government is also concerned with Russia and North Korea getting closer. Perhaps that explains the big shakeup in the military. This has nothing to do with changes, but this piece by a Times bureau chief exploring his father’s time spent in Mao’s army was quite good.

The World: After winning a landslide victory, Labour in the UK is shaking things up there with plans to remove all hereditary peers from the House of Lords.

Like a lot of cities, Barcelona has had it with too many tourists. To change that, it is ending apartment rentals by foreign tourists. On the other hand, Oslo had a viral ad campaign that is meant to attract tourists.

War continues to shape the Middle East. Israel is now ramping up their attacks on Hezbollah to the north of them. For readers not familiar with the group, this is a good piece on what is Hezbollah’s role and influence in Lebanon.

Finally, people have been worried about AI disrupting the world. While all that worrying was happening, the computer company  Crowdstrike caused a massinve outage on computers all over the world after pushing out a change. Talk about disruptive. Not the type of change the world needs.

As always, thanks for taking the time to read these rambles. I appreciate it.

Silicon Valley is full of not serious people and it’s time to treat them accordingly

I really like this piece by Dave Karpf on how not enough people are making fun of Balaji Srinivasan right now. While he goes on the skewer Srinivasan for a stupid bet/stunt he did recently, he touches on a broader topic:

2023 is shaping up to be a big year for recognizing that the titans of Silicon Valley actually have very little clue how the financial system works. That’s essentially what capsized Silicon Valley Bank: the venture capitalist crowd was long on self-confidence and short on basic-understanding-of-how-things-work.

At some point with characters like Balaji, you have to ask yourself whether he’s putting on a show or whether he really is a fool. There are a lot of guys at the heights of Silicon Valley who put on a similar performance. (*cough* David Sacks *coughcough* Jason Calcanis.) They have money, and they speak with such confidence. For years, they’ve been taken them seriously. This ought to be the year when that presumption of omnicompetence withers away.

I think that quote  of how 2023 is going to be “a big year for recognizing that the titans of Silicon Valley actually have very little clue how the financial system works” really can apply to anything, not just the financial system. As Karpf notes, all these leaders in Silicon Valley “have money, and they speak with such confidence” and people take them seriously.

So when Marc Andreessen bloviates on how AI will save the world and how it’s the best technology EVAH, no one says he’s full of crap. They don’t look at how he went long on crypto when others were getting out, for example, and say “yeah maybe he’s not the best guy to listen to on this stuff”.

And that’s too bad. I think we should mock these people more often. We should mock the vapidity of Bill Gates’s recent commencement speech. We should cheer when companies like Hindenburg Research go after Jack Dorsey and block for what a crappy company it is. We should recognize how fraudulent people like Tony Hsieh or Elizabeth Holmes are. We should recognize that these people do not deserve our attention. And if they get it, they should be scrutinized and at the very least, mocked. I mean Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are talking about fighting in a cage match.

These are not serious people. We should stop acting like they are.

P.S. The fraudster  Elizabeth Holmes finally went to prison after trying in vain to convince people she should not. Did silicon Valley learn anything from this? Not much, if this story on how recently the company Grail told 400 patients incorrectly that  they may have cancer.

As for Tony Hsieh, you can read here how he used companies like ResultSource to make his book Delivering Happiness into a “best seller” (not to mention giving it away). Just another form of fraud. Here’s a good takedown of Tony Hsieh and the emptiness of the tech mogul.

Finally the New York Times has a rundown of the recent high tech phonies and the trouble they are in.

 

The decline of start-up tech in 2020

Is described here: As the Start-Up Boom Deflates, Tech Is Humbled – The New York Times.

Key takeaways:

  • It’s not as bad as the dot com era
  • It should not be expected, given how many duds startup tech has given us lately
  • It may lead to something worse, but my assessment right now is it could signal a correction more than an overall decline

There’s been many stories written about tech lately: that article is a good chance to get an overall assessment as to where tech is now. At least, start up tech.

The comeuppance of Silicon Valley

It’s not in full decline, but Silicon Valley is on its heels these days, whether due to the practices at Uber or Facebook or Google or …well, the companies that belong there as a whole. Here’s three pieces that all touch on the some of the problems there, but really I could have put three dozen recent articles instead of just these three:

  1. There’s Blood In The Water In Silicon Valley
  2. Privilege and inequality in Silicon Valley – Tech Diversity Files – Medium
  3. Silicon Valley is confusing pseudo-science with innovation – The Verge

Everything I see tells me that they are not equipped to deal with the challenges on their own. If this is true, then expect these high tech companies to come in for a political bruising soon.

The decline of Peter Thiel – a marker

After reading these three profiles on Peter Thiel in the New Yorker:

1. From 2011: No Death, No Taxes – The New Yorker

2. From 2016, just after he spoke at the Republican Convention: Peter Thiel’s Conservative Vision – The New Yorker

3. From May 2016, How Peter Thiel’s Gawker Battle Could Open a War Against the Press – The New Yorker

What came to mind is the decline of his reputation in the last half decade. A decline he has brought on himself. Whatever you thought of him in 2011 — if you thought of him at all — you likely joined a majority by 2016 in thinking poorly of him.

I’m just putting this here for now. I am sure his reputation will decline further, and I want to revisit that when it happens.