At the nytimes.com is a article on movies on flash drives. It’s a good example of how not to think about the future. It’s essentially a list of points arguing against movies on flash drives. And what are the points?
1) it’s hard to make money from it
2) flash drives are too expensive
3) you have to have every movie on a separate card
4) People like buying things
5) It would take too long to download a movie onto flash
None of these hold water. 1) Movie viewers don’t care if it is hard to make money from it: ask the music business. 2) They may be expensive now, but watch chip makers gear up if they see there is demand for them: they will get cheap soon. 3) This is just an assumption: there are many delivery models to choose from. 4) This one is laughable on so many levels, it’s not worth arguing. 5) This is in line with number 3: again, delivery models will take care of this.
And the line: “And by that time, the technological, business and social problems of downloading movies are likely to be solved.” Well, that is pure: stick your head in the sand and hope the problem goes away. The problem – at least it is a problem for the movie business – is that the movie business will be in the same boat that the music business is in very soon. It’s part way there already. Moore’s Law will get it all the way there.
Read the article Buying Movies on Flash Drives: Nice Idea That Doesn’t Work – Bits – Technology – New York Times Blog and see what you think.
(Image from wikipedia)
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