How do I know this? Easy! I went to Data Paradigms – Data, data, data! and looked at this chart.
And yes, it is hard to read: you will need to go to that site or here (Next Pope) to play around with the prediction tool. Let’s see. It says the top five candidates are Scola (Italy), Ouellet (Canada), Scherer (Brazil), Turkson (Ghana) and Bertone (Italy). I will be surprised if it isn’t one of those.
Smart People I Know 
Ha!! This is what you get for posting ahead! JUST after this went in, Argentina’s Bergolio was chosen. Let this be a less for any of you in the future — me included — who try to pick the next Pope before the Cardinals. 🙂
ha! Ah well…..It was a reasonable guess-timation! ; D
That’s what I get for posting in advance 🙂