How do I know this? Easy! I went to Data Paradigms – Data, data, data! and looked at this chart.
And yes, it is hard to read: you will need to go to that site or here (Next Pope) to play around with the prediction tool. Let’s see. It says the top five candidates are Scola (Italy), Ouellet (Canada), Scherer (Brazil), Turkson (Ghana) and Bertone (Italy). I will be surprised if it isn’t one of those.