Daily Archives: September 5, 2012

On the U.S. Presidential Election: speeches are great, but it’s the numbers that matter

Speeches are great. They get people excited and give them something to talk about. Conventions are grand and theatrical. It’s not suprising that they get alot of attention.

Elections, however, are about numbers. Here are two sets of them.

The first set comes from the great FiveThirtyEight Blog on the NYTimes.com, run by Nate Silver. Right now, Silver has the probabiliy of Obama winning at 74.8%. That could change of course, but right now it is very strongly in Obama’s favour.

Here’s another set of numbers from the blog The Mischiefs of Faction.

What it shows is that Obama’s campaign has a much better ground game in the swing states. Perhaps Romney can win overcome this, though that seems unlikely in a supposedly close election.

In short, right now Obama is more popular in the swing states and he has a better ground game in those states.

Of course the election is many weeks away. But I am trying to see how Romney wins this, and right now the only way I see it is if something suddenly goes horribly wrong with the economy. Let’s see.

(Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for a pointer to this second blog.)