Ten ad hoc thoughts on the Apple Watch from me

  1. It already looks like the Watch is a big success. If anything, what has surprised me is that Apple doesn’t seem to have sufficient quantity in stock to meet the demand. I am not surprised by the success: I am surprised by the breakdown** in the supply chain. (** Further reporting may show that to be not true).
  2. The timing of the Watch is perfect. What do you think will make a great present for young people as they graduate from schools and universities? Yep. Who do you think doesn’t own a watch currently? Yep, same group.
  3. The size of the Watch will likely be a non issue, now and in the future. I’d like it thinner myself, but there have been previous Apple devices that I thought were not ergonomically ideal, and they did just fine. Plus, we have become spoiled: the original iPod and iPhone slimmed down over time, but were still successful in various formats. The same will be said for the watch.
  4. The price is a non-issue too. People pay $179 (in Canada) for a Nano and $249 or more for an iPod Touch. The watch is another price point, but not all that far away from them. What is interesting is that Apple has products from under $100 (the Shuffle), to the Nano, the Touch, to iPad,  the Watch, to the iPhone, to the laptops. If you consider the Apple an aspirational product, that is smart. You can acquire an Apple product at different price points, and once you get them, you are likely to be more inclined to get the new product from them. That happened to me: I went from having no Apple devices to having a shuffle, then a touch, than a phone, then an iPad. I expect to eventually get a laptop from them too. You get used to the quality and the interoperability.
  5. The benefit of the Watch, which I have seen with my Pebble, is that I can keep aware of alerts without looking at my phone. I expect alot of people will love that.
  6. People who think the Apple Watch is just a watch likely think the iPhone is just a telephone. As we all know, the iPhone is a small computer that allows us to make phone calls but really does so much more. The Apple Watch is an even smaller computer that tells us the time but really does much more.
  7. Application developers will drive the Watch to greater success. The new device will drive new applications that couldn’t be written on other devices. The apps will make the watch go from Nice to Have to Must Have.
  8. Copycat hardware makers will also drive success. You can bet that Korean and Chinese hardware manufacturers will be coming out with their own watches soon (and some already have). Soon smart watches will be as common as smart phones.
  9. Expect an explosion of watch bands and other accessories for the watch. Also, you will see that people will own more than one Watch (something they are unlikely to do with other tech, like phones or laptops).
  10. As for the future? If you still believe in Moore’s Law like I do, eventually the Watch will not need the iPhone to work. Also, the future will only see more wearable technology, and I expect the Watch to play a big part in that.
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