Tag: USA

On how I am understanding Trump 2.0

Photo by charlesdeluvio on Unsplash.com

Since the inauguration it’s been difficult to avoid thinking about Donald Trump. Even if you avoid social media or the news, if you care about the world at all you are forced to consider what he and the people in his administration are up to.

With the flurry of actions his team has taken, many people I follow have been trying to make sense of it all. I’m no exception. So I wrote out this list of what I think are the things that motivate him or are in his comfort zone:

  1. making money
  2. being the center of attention / good publicity
  3. power / being the boss
  4. rewarding those who treat him well
  5. punishing those that treat him poorly
  6. not having to work hard
  7. not thinking (i.e. doing whatever someone recommends)
  8. real estate
  9. the 80s
  10. Mar-a-Lago

That list hasn’t changed much since Trump 1.0 and his first term in office. What is different is the intensity.

Unlike other presidents, he is not motivated to work hard, to give back to others, to be virtuous in any way, or to stay current with the culture. He may appear to concede some of these (e.g., letting Elon be the center of attention) if he thinks it will help him with something else (making money, not having to work hard).

The next time you see him doing something, you can look to this list and at least one if not more of these items for an explanation. Getting into crypto? #1. Taking over the Kennedy Center? #2.  Running for president? #3. Appointing people like Kristi Noem for anything? #4. You get the idea.

I’m sure there will be things you might add to that list. But if you see Trump doing something and ask yourself “what possessed him to do that”, it’s likely one of the items on this list.

The last 200 days and the next 4 years in America


If anyone wants to know what happened in the last 200 days or what will happen in the next four years, then this is a good place to start: Donald Trump wins presidential election, defeating Harris to retake White House (The Washington Post). Specifically, when it comes to the economy, he promises this.

Trump did everything wrong in the campaign and Biden and Harris did everything right and none of it mattered.  The economy is doing great now but the economy has also been terrible for the last few years because of a pandemic. Beyond that, housing is simply unaffordable for many people, so having a job doesn’t necessarily make you feel good about your place, economically speaking. For those voters, the hope is Trump will fix that.

While Trump will have the Senate to make changes, he may not have the House. In terms of passing laws, that could provide him with difficulties. Difficult or not, it may not make much difference to him personally.  He will likely continue to use the office to get richer. And few if any of the charges against Trump will remain, so he will likely spend his time at the White House rather than a cell.

If anything, Trump will delegate governing to others, like Musk and RFK Jr and the Heritage Foundation. He’s not much interested in the job of the presidency, while others around him are. He’s content to be the Boss of the country and use it to get wealthy.

I suspect this is the end of Ukraine as a free country, though the rest of Europe may decide otherwise. I imagine things will only heat up in the Middle East as Netanyahu feels more impowered, but it is risky to make predictions in that part of the world.

It’s also risky to make any sorts of predictions about what will happen in the US, but unlike 2016, there’s more to base any prediction on. Generally, if you are a fan of Trump, you’re going to predict things will be great again. If you are a foe of the man, your predictions will be full of darkness and difficulty.

 

 

 

 

 

On Jimmy Carter, the 39th president and responder in chief of the USA

Last week former US President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 100th birthday. This piece sums up how many think of Carter as president:

In the popular imagination, his presidency was viewed as a fiasco. Besieged by inflation and a hostage crisis in Iran, it ended with a landslide loss to Mr. Reagan after just four years.  … But Mr. Carter’s presidency was more consequential than is commonly remembered, said Stuart E. Eizenstat, his chief domestic policy adviser in the White House. Eizenstat’s 2018 book argued that Mr. Carter notched significant but overlooked wins, including on energy, the environment and foreign policy.

All that’s true, but it leaves out an important detail. Whatever Jimmy Carter was, he was Not Nixon. Indeed he came across as the anti-Nixon. President Ford was Not Nixon either, but he was still attached to his disgraced predecessor. Carter allowed Americans to turn the page on Nixon in a way Ford never could.

The Vietnam War, the Pentagon Papers and then Watergate were a lot for Americans to handle. Carter gave Americans an opportunity to move on from all that and restore the presidency by being everything Nixon was not.

Sometimes presidents come along and act like first responders to a crisis. FDR did that. So did Obama and Biden. In between them was Carter. He restored the country in a way he doesn’t get credit for. Here’s hoping that becomes a bigger part of his legacy.

For more on the aftermath of Watergate, see here and here.

The Fall. A time of change. Here’s some thoughts on what changes have occurred recently (and what stayed the same) in my usual ramblings for a new season  (i.e. the September 2024 edition of my not-a-newsletter newsletter)


It’s the Fall, a season of change. Let take some time and look at what’s changed and what hasn’t since I last posted.

The obvious thing that hasn’t changed is I am still writing newsletter.  Thanks for continuing to read these odd newsletterish posts of mine. I’ve been writing them since the beginning of the pandemic. There’s a certain pleasure in adding another link in the chain.

Olympics: Since the last newsletter, we’ve had the Paris Olympics. That was a nice change for many people. It was a bit unusual, as it used the city for much of the venue. But since it was Paris, the venue was beautiful. Speaking of beauty, here are some of the most beautiful moments of the Olympics. And here are some of the best moments.

While there were plenty of amazing stories coming out of the Olympics, This  one of one Olympic ahtlete who competed at age 61 caught my attention.

Pandemic: you might not think there is anything changing regarding the pandemic, but there was a spike in covid over the summer. (Get those fall vaccines when you can.) More on that wave, here.

The kids who were preschool age during the pandemic are now in classes and struggling. Just one of the many long term impacts of that period.

Inflation: lots of good change on this front. Inflation  is finally below 3% in the US. Grocery prices are finally falling. Dining out is getting cheaper, at least in the fast food industry, as this and this explain. All good to see.

Work: Some companies are trying to get employees to change their routine and stop working from home. Some, like Amazon, are forcing employees to return to office (RTO) fulltime. Are there also layoffs coming down the pike at Amazon? I am guessing yes. After all, weaponizing RTO is an easy way to shed employees. And while they might be able to get away with this in the US, they should expect legal issues in the UK.

As time progresses, who knows how many offices there will even be in the future? The Times has a good piece on how banks are quietly dumping  commercial real estate loans.

USA: it’s an election year in America, which should bring in much change come November.  If you want to understand who is leading in the US polls, read this.

A big part of the presidential election comes down to certain states. This piece on  swing states explains that for you and why it’s important.

Have you heard of sanewashing?  Poynter explains what it means. It will be interesting to see if journalists can allow Trump’s words speak for themselves, or whether they will continue the practice.

When it comes to supporting a presidential candidate, are the Silicon Valley elites right wing or left wing? As this piece explains, it depends. Some, like Peter Thiel, are very conservative to the point of being directly involved in sponsoring  JD Vance, Trump’s VP choice, among others.

As for American conservatives on the whole, they’ve had some big wins with regards to US supreme court term decisions lately. Here”s a good piece the dives deeper and assesses the radically right wing Roberts court.

With all these wins, what might conservatives in the US come after next? Possibly no fault divorce. And if you are wondering how conservatives are so successful getting their way legally, here’s something on how they game the US supreme court.

On last American item. I think the fact that  insurance companies are going to try to stop losing money because of  climate change is going to be a big thing politically and otherwise.

China: things continue to change in China. The government is struggling to improve  the  economy. The government is also concerned with Russia and North Korea getting closer. Perhaps that explains the big shakeup in the military. This has nothing to do with changes, but this piece by a Times bureau chief exploring his father’s time spent in Mao’s army was quite good.

The World: After winning a landslide victory, Labour in the UK is shaking things up there with plans to remove all hereditary peers from the House of Lords.

Like a lot of cities, Barcelona has had it with too many tourists. To change that, it is ending apartment rentals by foreign tourists. On the other hand, Oslo had a viral ad campaign that is meant to attract tourists.

War continues to shape the Middle East. Israel is now ramping up their attacks on Hezbollah to the north of them. For readers not familiar with the group, this is a good piece on what is Hezbollah’s role and influence in Lebanon.

Finally, people have been worried about AI disrupting the world. While all that worrying was happening, the computer company  Crowdstrike caused a massinve outage on computers all over the world after pushing out a change. Talk about disruptive. Not the type of change the world needs.

As always, thanks for taking the time to read these rambles. I appreciate it.

How can you learn about Project 2025? Three ways

If you are curious about Project 2025 — and if you are an American, you should be — there are at least three ways you can learn more about it.

The first way is to go to a web site set up to describe it, Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project.

Personally, and as a progressive person, I found this the best way to understand the effects it could have, 25and.me: How Does Project 2025 Affect Me?

However, if all that is hard to get a handle on, or if you want something more neutral, you can also check out: Project 2025 in Wikipedia.

Chances are if Donald Trump is reelected president, many of the things proposed in Project 2025 will come to fruition in the four years he is in office. So before you vote, read up on Project 2025 and know what you might be in store for.

The brilliant apparel of the Bitter Southerner General Store

While the Bitter Southerner General Store has lots of great stuff on it, I especially loved the Apparel section. I mean, how can you not love a T shirt that says “make more biscuits”? That right there is as much a commandment and a way of better living than anything I know.

On the more serious side, there is this great message:

Powerful and wise.

Finally, I think this is simple and beautiful:

Can’t you just taste that sandwich? Love it.

On RFK Jr and the people that are supporting him

RFK Jr is in the news a lot recently. One obvious reason is that he is trying to run for President. The other reason is because some of the worst of people are jumping on his bandwagon and amplifying his campaign.

If you are unsure about him, then I recommend this piece on RFK Jr for several reasons. First, it sums up how I think I now think about RFK Jr:

His noxious views on vaccines, the origin of AIDS, the alleged dangers of wi-fi and other forms of junk science deserve no wide hearing. Polls showing he’s favored by 20 percent of likely Democratic voters over President Biden are almost as laughable as Kennedy’s views. It’s early; he’s got iconic American name recognition; and there’s almost always an appetite, among Democrats anyway, for anybody but the incumbent.

Second, it also has a list of articles at the beginning that debunk RFK Jr’s ridiculous claims. And if that’s not enough, here’s more on RFK Jr from the New York Times and People Magazine.

As for the people jumping on his bandwagon and amplifying him, here’s a break down on the horrible harassment of  Dr Peter Hotez by Joe Rogen, Elon Musk and others. As for why you don’t want to debate science on a podcast, here’s a good piece on what it’s like to go on  Joe Rogan and debate anything 

Here’s hoping RFK Jr and the cranks he attracts fade into the background soon.

The crucial fact to remember when it comes to Debt Ceiling discussions in the USA

There’s a great quote in this piece on how the Republicans demand spending cuts to lift the debt limit. They won’t say what to cut. It’s this:

“If you exempted defense, veterans, Social Security and Medicare spending, you’d have to cut everything else by 85%,” said Marc Goldwein, an expert at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a think tank that advocates for reducing red ink. “It’s possible as a mathematical proposition. But the question is: Is it possible as a policy proposition? And the answer is no.”

The crucial fact is this: the US government is an Insurance Company with an Army. (From Paul Krugman’s blog of over 11 years ago,) That leave any one governing with really two choices: cut the insurance or cut military spending if you want to make significant reductions in the budget. If you cut the insurance, good luck getting reelected. And while I think they could easily still dominate the world with a much smaller military, good luck as well persuading many American voters of that.

Some Republican politicians love to imagine they can reduce government spending significantly during these Debt Ceiling discussions. All the best with that. (Even Mitch McConnell is moving on this time.)

The worst of the Supreme Court of the US?


With all the news concerning the US Supreme Court, I did some digging to see how the current court measures up against its predecessors. Here some pieces I found on the worst decisions ever made:

And here are two articles on the worst members of that court:

Judge for yourself. 🙂

 

For anyone needing medication in the USA, you need to check this out.

For anyone needing medication in the USA, you need to check out this service provided by the billionaire Mark Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs. They cover a wide range of medication and they clearly illustrate how they go about doing it.

Kudos to Cuban for doing this. It’s a highly practical and substantially useful service for people. I hope it saves people a ton of money. More importantly, I hope it saves and extends the lives of many in the USA.

On not forgetting George W Bush

I was reading this analysis of a recent speech by George W. Bush (‘The Nation I Know,’ by George W. Bush – by James Fallows – Breaking the News) and it got me thinking about him again.

It’s easy to forget about Bush. Most Republicans act like they have. Many Democrats too. While reviled towards the end of his presidency — so much so that he was shunned by his party at their conventions — there are people who still think positively of him (For example, Michelle Obama Explains Her and George W. Bush’s Candy Exchange and Friendship).

But no one should forget about Bush and all  the terrible things done during his presidency, from torture to war. To see what I mean, read this: The Legacy of America’s Post-9/11 Turn to Torture – The New York Times. While some in America would like to forget all that and think better of him, much of the world likely thinks like this: George W Bush should shut up and go away | US & Canada | Al Jazeera. Even there, the idea is to dismiss him and forget about him.

Perhaps Bush is a genial and charming man. But he will also be the man that brought the United States and the World to a worse place. That should not be forgotten.

(Image above: Official White House photo by Pete Souza – https://www.flickr.com/photos/whitehouse/4291602492/ (direct link))

Everything you wanted to know about the Filibuster

 

That is an odd title, because while there is much talk in the United States about the Filibuster, they are really only talking about the use of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate. Mind you, because of the composition of that current political body, there will be much more talk about it. If you want to have some context regarding it, read this: The History of the Filibuster

If you just want to know about filibusters in general, read this.

(Photo by Joshua Sukoff on Unsplash)

On what Bill Gates was thinking about last New Year’s Eve

Taxes

If you thought that Bill Gates was thinking about pandemics last year, you are incorrect (although he has put a lot of thought into them). No, what he was thinking about when he wrote this,What I’m thinking about this New Year’s Eve, was taxes. Specifically, how to make taxes in the U.S. fairer.

It’s worth reading regardless of your political beliefs. If you are more right wing, you will find things to agree and disagree with. Likewise if you are left wing.

There is too much inequality and poverty in the world. Fairer taxes is one way to address that.

(Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash)

I hope Americans still on the fence about travelling for Thanksgiving read this


I understand the importance of Thanksgiving in the US. It’s a big deal, and a big part of that is coming together. But coming together might mean spreading COVID-19, not just with the people you visit, but others after the visit.

Because of that, I hope you will stay in your respective dwellings and take advantage of this offer from Zoom: Thanksgiving on Zoom: Your family get-together can surpass 40 minutes.

Normally if you have a free Zoom account, you are limited to how long your online session can last. Happily, Zoom is waiving that for this year. It’s a great offer: you should jump on it.

I hope people will meet up virtually in the US this Thanksgiving. It will make a world of difference.

No area should get cocky when it comes to their dealing with the coronavirus

Because as this shows, How California went from a coronavirus success story to a new hot spot – Vox,  all you need to do is let your guard down and the disease comes back. I am reading stories of many places having surges and many places are having to go back into lockdown. I understand why people want to read stories of places like New Zealand where life has returned to normal. Life hasn’t returned to normal: all places have done is managed through strong measures to stop it from spreading in their area. Meanwhile it is spreading to other areas of the globe, like India. All it will take is enough relaxing of controls and it could come back stronger.

We know very little about this disease. Social distancing and masks seem to be helping to control it. That’s what we have for now: some level of control. No medicine is coming to help us yet. No mutation is coming to blunt it yet. We may have a long way to go.

The worst ever president of the United States of America is…

…likely this guy: James Buchanan.

James Buchanan

And this piece makes the case for why he — and not the current guy — is the worst: No, Trump isn’t the worst president ever – Indivisible Movement – Medium. In a nutshell:

In order to wrest the title of worst president from Buchanan, a contemporary commander in chief would need to wreck the economy, revoke all human rights from an entire race, violate the constitutional separation of powers, and plunge the country into a ruinous civil war that kills nearly 2% of the US population.

With all the staggering incompetence and corruption of the 45th presidency, it may seem hard to believe anyone could be worst. I believe in time Trump will be in the bottom 5 presidents. But to wrestle the title of worst President ever, he still needs to do worse. Let’s hope he does not.

A better way to follow the US presidential race…

..is to follow this, from Bloomberg:  Who’s Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?

You can still read the news and follow along, state by state, but what really matters more and more is the delegate count.

One thing that surprised me: right now, Ted Cruz is alot closer to Donald Trump than I imagined. Obviously there is a way to go still, but he is doing well. Will Cruz win? I think the odds are against him, but right now they are not insurmountable.

As for the other side, I believe Hillary Clinton is going to win, regardless of the Michigan surprise showing of Bernie Sanders. Sanders is performing better than many imagined, but she has a big lead in delegates and that will only get larger as we go along.

How to tell who the next president of the US will be (ahem, Hillary Clinton)

There’s two ways to tell who will be the next president of the United States.

  1. Listen to the pundits: The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton – Bloomberg Politics
  2. Follow the betters: 2016 Presidential Election – Next President bet | betfair.com

In this case, at this moment, they are both in agreement: Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. Now, the election is so very far away, anything can happen, a week is a long time in politics, blah blah blah, but right now it is hers to lose.

If you ask me, ignore the pundits and follow the betters: the latter are rarely wrong. Read the pundits if you want to know why she is winning.

 

The best thing you will read about the upcoming 2016 US Presidential election (and why you can pay much less attention until then)

Check out this map:

And then read this piece by a very realistic US Republican on the upcoming US presidential election: A reality-check on the 2014 results

If you are a fan of Hillary Clinton* then it is great news. If you are a supporter of anyone else, you will see why it is going to be very difficult for anyone from the GOP to become president in 2016.

But don’t take my word for it: read the article. Bookmark it until next year. It’s very likely going to be true, regardless of the thousands of articles and millions of words that will be written between now and election day.

(* Yes, in theory, Bernie Sanders could be the nominee. In practice, I think it is very unlikely.)