Two things to look for in banking: predator banks and nationalized banks

Signs of that can be seen in this article in the the Globe and Mail’s Banking crisis crosses Atlantic.

First, smart banks, like Lloyd’s, are going to take advantage of this crisis to snap up banks that they have had their eye on for some time. Bank of America did the same thing. If you start to see mergers over the next few weeks, it may not be so much that both parties are desparate; rather it may be that one party is the wounded prey and the other party is the stronger hunter.

Second, you may see the concept of “national” banks come to the fore.  Just like countries subsidize agriculture and airlines, you may see countries subsidize national banks, as well. It would be an extension of a country’s central bank, but it would be a commercial enterprise with restrictions. (For example, they may have a mandate to do a certain percentage of banking within the country they reside in.)

This is merely a prediction, but not an unlikely one, given the way things are going.

On the other hand, Chinese banks could come along and just swallow up a good portion of American and European banks, and that would be that. I am betting on the former, but we will see.

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