Tag: covid

Heat dome! Some thoughts – hot and not – and the usual ramblings midyear year (i.e. the June 2025 edition of my not-a-newsletter newsletter)

The first half of 2025 is done, and if you’re living in Central Canada, you’ve just suffered through some face melting heat caused by a heat dome. That was a new experience for me. I’ve suffered heat waves, but not a heat dome. It’s a new way of suffering. Fortunately it did not last long, and cooler temps have brought some relief.

Once the main focus of this newsletter was the pandemic and COVID, because for the previous 5 years that was the thing that most preoccupied people. While COVID is still around, it has diminished to the point that the flu is deadlier than it in some parts of the world.

In the last year the thing that mostly preoccupies the world are the actions of the second Trump administration. I suspect that this will also be the thing that preoccupies this this newsletter for the next few years.

Trump 2.0

Tariffs were pretty high on the agenda for Trump’s second term in office. I think he dreamed he could eliminate income taxes and replace them with tariffs. (Never mind that tariffs are just another form of tax, which everyone but Trump seems to know). Turns out, it’s not that easy to get rid of income taxes. And while trying to switch over to a tariff based form of revenue, you get things like shipments freezing up just like in the bad old days of the pandemic. Does any of Trump’s tariffs make any sense? Some try to explain away his actions, but the constant changing of tariff rates on various places seems like madness to many.

When Trump hasn’t been applying tariffs on everyone including penguins and seals, he has been out seeking revenge.  It’s pretty common knowledge that Trump has a revenge list.  For those on the list, it will be interesting to see who he attacks over the term of his administration. I suspect he’ll get to most of them. Of those already attacked, many are struggling to respond. The ones that did respond by caving to Trump are losing in other ways.

It’s not only individuals that Trump is after. It’s also institutions, such as U.S. universities. While his administration has gone after a number of schools, Harvard has been hit especially hard, as you can see here. Why Harvard? Perhaps because they are fighting back, unlike Columbia University, which quickly threw in the towel.

He’s even taking his fight to the Justice system itself. Some are wondering if the Supreme Court would stop him. Short answer is nope, it didn’t, although they are pushing back ever so slightly. While the SCOTUS is giving Trump a pass, judges in lower courts are struggling to provide some sense of justice despite this onslaught from Trump attorneys in the Justice Department.

As for other attacks, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention his wrongful deporting of individuals to other countries, the wrongful arrests of citizens by ICE, and the sending of marines to Los Angeles.  Honestly it’s too much to cover, but that’s the point.

It’s not all tariffs and attacks, mind you. For instance, he’s found time to redo parts of the White House. Much has been written about his weird Oval Office decoration (this is the guy who keeps a fake Renoir painting in his New York Home). Not surprising, the new look doesn’t even seem to be expensive, just cheap and gaudy.

What else? He picked up a free plane from Qatar, just one of many corrupt acts. He also got his wish of having a military parade on his birthday. In the end, many thought it was a failure. What does not seem to have been a failure were the No Kings protests that happened at the same time.

Musk

Speaking of failure, Elon Musk has slunk off from Washington, black eye and all. Like so many others, Musk learned that Trump will use you and then be done with you. There was some initial speculation that he was not really leaving, but that seems unfounded. (It didn’t help him that he got into literal fights with other members of Trump cabinet, which likely explains these leaks about his weird beavoir and drug misuse).

Musk really believed he and DOGE boys would find 2 trillion dollars in savings as they slashed and burned through much of the administration in Washington. Instead he cost the US government massive amounts of revenue, largely due to IRS cuts. And while DOGE was a failure in itself — some are already calling it over — Trump’s spending bill undermined any savings DOGE might have achieved. (For those interested, check out this DOGE tracker for more info.)

Elon Musk leaves behind a legacy of disease, starvation and death during his short time in Washington. Hope it was worth it for him.

The Pope

While all that was happening, Pope Francis died this Easter Monday. After a relatively short conclave, an American was chosen as the next pope, Leo XIV.

Needless to say, this lead to a slew of news stories, such as  how the new pope came up with his name and how the Cardinals were watching the movie “Conclave” for guidance. Of course while Trump was at the funeral he drew attention for the way he dressed and his supposed desire to be Pope. Whatever. Unlike Trump and Musk, Pope Francis left a good legacy and tried to live a good life, as seen here.

Canada

One weird counter-effect Trump has had on the world is damaging political parties that are aligned in some way to him. This happened in Canada, with Mark Carney and the Liberals surging from behind to win the recent Federal election. (Results here.) It helped that Carney’s Liberals won big in Toronto, despite Conservatives flipping key 905 seats.

Carney has since paid a visit to Trump and it seemed to go well, but one never knows what will happen at any given week in the White House. Meanwhile Carney has also been courting other world leaders like King Charles and members of the G7, no doubt as a way of dealing with our neighbor down south.

In other news

Are things still terrible in the Middle East? Of course. If anything, things are only getting worse. Ukraine? Yes. Is crypto making a comeback? Sadly I think so.

Are we in for a wave of disease and suffering due to people like RFK, Jr? It’s likely. Mind you, measles is surging in Alberta. Foolishness like this doesn’t help.

Michelin, which has been to Toronto a few times, has now expanded their Canadian presence by going to Montreal and Quebec and reporting back on all the goodness that part of the country has to offer.

Finally

The great Brian Wilson of Beach Boys fame passed away recently. I’ve always loved his song, “God Only Knows”, and here he is with an abundance of new and not so new musicians to perform it with him for the BBC:

As always, thanks for reading the June 2025 edition of my not-a-newsletter newsletter! Enjoy your summer.

 

It’s spring: out with the old scourge, in with the new! (i.e. the March 2025 edition of my not-a-newsletter newsletter is here)

It’s another spring. Five springs ago was the start of the old scourge, the pandemic. This spring we have the new scourge of the Trump administration. Both had/are having an effect on everyone around the globe. Both moved/are moving fast and caused/are causing major damage.

You might say: wow, I’m not sure if I want to read all this! I understand. If you want to scroll quickly down to the World section…wait, that’s not too cheerful either….to the…ok, maybe scroll down to the bottom. Or come back in five years and read this in perspective! Whatever you do, I don’t mind. For those of you who can manage, let’s start with the old scourge.

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Pandemic: there’s been much focus in the news on the 5th Anniversary of lockdown. The Toronto Star did a piece on how the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown taught us all some lessons. On the other hand, The Washington Post asked, Five years after covid pandemic: Have we learned anything? and wondered why we are so good at forgeting the pandemic lockdown. To help us remember, WaPo also did this piece on powerful photos that captured their pandemic struggles and then asked, where are they now? Over at the New York Times they presented this, Covid-19: Enduring Images of a Global Crisis, 5 Years On and this: a coronavirus timeline.  The CBC weighed in with this: Five years after pandemic began, COVID-19 has left death, illness, isolation in its wake.

The pandemic was a massive event in our lives. It is good that many are choosing not to simply act like it never happened.  If you choose to look, you can still see markers of the pandemic everywhere. You can still see remnants of COVID warnings still on doors and sidewalks.

Not all pandemic markers are visible. So many people died of COVID that Social Security in the U.S. ended up with a surplus of funds. And while for many of us, life has gone back to normal, those with long COVID continue to suffer. Likewise, young people were often deeply affected by what happened.  The Times talked to teenagers and asked them how the pandemic has changed them. And not just young people: public servants confessed on how sharing science about COVID put them in the crosshairs.

One of the weirdest parts about the pandemic is that it likely led to people resisting getting vaccines, possibly because they felt the COVID-19 vaccines were forced upon them. It appears that vaccination rates are declining and measles cases are climbing. And if that’s not bad enough, here are the preventable diseases could re-emerge next.

There’s some discussions around bringing back waste water surveillance in Canada to look for measles. It’s sad to say, but I hope that comes true. Meanwhile, there is a spring dose of a covid 19 vaccine coming available. Consider getting it, even if you’re in parts of the world, like the U.S., that is having the mildest Covid winter on record. Let’s make sure the old scourge doesn’t return.

On the topic of returning, people like Jamie Dimon wants everyone to return to office. (Like Elon Musk, he says and does a lot of stupid things.) So do other business leaders. Meanwhile people who study this, like the IMF, says working from home continues to lead to increased productivity. I guess CEOs consider increased productivity a bad thing. Funny that.

Trump 2.0: Trump 2.0 is the new scourge and definitely not a funny thing. He and his team have only been in office for a few months, and already they have hastily imposed MAGA rule on the government. Trump quickly assembled his MAGA picks for new White House term, and other than Matt Gaetz (who seems to have been universally reviled) he got most of them through, including such gems as Kristi Noem (his pick for homeland security secretary) and the DOGE boys, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Whoops, did we say Vivek? He was there for a hot minute before he stepped down. Meanwhile, ‘Uncle’ Elon Musk went straight to work, bring a team of such luminaries as teenager “Big Balls” to take a chainsaw to the Federal Government. The DOGE team hacked their way throughout the various parts of the government, doing so much damage that it is hard to keep up. Thankfully people like the staff at TIME have provided summaries.

Meanwhile there has been some pushback from tech workers against Musk’s efforts. In some cases it has led to physical standoffs at the entrances of buildings before staff took DOGE to court. Like with many of Trump and his team, the legal proceedings have led to setbacks, including 3 court losses in 90 minutes.

What will be the impact of this? It’s almost too difficult to say, since it will cause damage in a multitude of ways, including potential loses for the GOP in upcoming elections. Which is why Republicans are pressing the House leadership for help as they face pressure over DOGE cuts at home. So much pressure, in fact, that the leadership told them not to hold Town Halls.

You might think: the US government is too big and this slash-and-burn approach is the only way to shrink it. Let Al Gore via this Doonesbury comic for March 16, 2025 explain otherwise. Newsweek has more on this.

You might also think: at least all those lost jobs will mean the government is going to be flush with cash now. Alas, tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRS. The only people who are going to be flush with cash due to DOGE are rich people. Rich people like Musk, who helps himself to government funds by making sure his company Starlink gets an FAA contract (which, of course, raises new conflict of interest concerns).

Musk is not the only one enriching himself while all this turmoil is going on. The Times reported that early Crypto Traders had speedy profits from the crypto Trump Coin. Meanwhile,  many others suffered losses. (For more on that, see this: The ‘Crypto Punks’ Behind Trump’s Murky New Business Venture.) And crypto is just one way the Trump gang will grab that bag. As one story wrote, ‘the gloves are off’: Trump appears poised to cash in from his presidency in new ways.

Enrichment is not the only thing Trump is after. Retribution is another. Every group some consider “elites” have been attacked by Trump and his team. Recently he’s been going after Big Law firms, for example. Especially those who were somehow involved in his pre-election trials. It’s weird to think what would have happened if he lost the election, since the Special Counsel Report said: Trump Would Have Been Convicted in Election Case. It seems Trump thinks of it every day, and has been acting accordingly.

Despite people like Timothy Snyder warning people: Do Not Obey In Advance, people have been doing exactly that. Because of Trump’s war on D.E.I., companies like Google have decided to end their DEI hiring goals. The staff at WaPo were so ‘Deeply alarmed’ by the changes at their paper that they requested a meeting with the owner, Jeff Bezos. I doubt it made any more difference than the massive subscription cancellations. Politicians that Trump did not like were removed from special committees like the House Intelligence Committee. Others tried to win favour with Trump by doing such weird things as hiring Daniel Penny to work at a Venture Capital Firm (whose founder naturally backed Trump).

Though not directly due to some action of Trump, there was lots of changes over at the left leaning MSNBC after the election. Rashida Jones, the MSNBC President, resigned. Then there was a MSNBC  “Bloodbath” of non-white anchors after Joy Reid was forced out. Strange times.

 The World: Trump’s actions have not been limited to the U.S. One of the first and oddest things he did was to decide to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. Naturally Google fell in line and now we have the Gulf of America on Google maps. That was odd but mostly harmless.

The tariffs he’s been slapping on everyone have not been harmless. Which tariffs, you ask? There have been so many I have lost count. You likely did too. Thankfully AP has put together a timeline. 

By the way, if you are like Trump and think that tariffs are paid by other countries, here is your reminder that the only people paying them is Americans: What is a tariff and who pays it?

Here in Canada, the many tariffs and other threats that Trump is hurling our way has had a big impact on the country. Canadians everywhere have rallied to oppose these Trumpian efforts with the ‘Elbows Up’ cry. You hear it from Mike Myers, who started it, to the every day Canadian, who among other things, have stopped buying American products and have stopped travelling to the U.S. The annexation threats led the Canadian prime minister Trudeau to say ‘you can’t take our country’ after a big hockey win over the U.S.

Or I should say the former prime minister. Trudeau stepped down after months of polling badly, to be replaced by Mark Carney. Carney has taken up the torch of rallying the country to oppose Trump which has led to a resurgence of the federal Liberal party. A party once doomed to defeat could form the next government on April 28th.

Other than Canada, Trump has also threatened Greenland and Panama. If you are asking, “why???” this explains it. This is an alternative explanation: American Foreign Policy Is Being Run by the Dumbest $%&*@#! Alive.

That’s alternative explaination is just one perspective on Trump. Many others are trying to get in front of the whirlwind of Trumpian events and try and make sense of it all. Naveet Alang had some thoughts on what it is like living through an inflection point. Bluntly, Bill Gates called Elon Musk’s embrace of far-right politicians abroad ‘insane shit’.  Others are looking back to Nazi Germany, the way the Atlantic did with this piece: How Hitler Dismantled a Democracy in 53 Days. The great actor Joel Grey had similar thoughts, here: ‘Cabaret’ Was a Warning. It’s Time to Heed It. (Related was this piece on how the Germans thought they were free.)

My own belief is the actions of authoritarian governments elsewhere provide clues to where the Trump government will go. Actions like a new anti-LGBTQ+ bill in Hungary that would ban Budapest Pride event and allow the use of facial recognition software. Or the arrest in Turkey of Istanbul’s mayor, a key rival of President Erdogan. There are signs everywhere in the world right now: you don’t have to turn back to Nazi Germany.

Israel: not everything happening in the world revolves around Trump. The Netanyahu regime continues to wage a War that won’t end and not just in Gaza. The Israeli army recently demolished West Bank apartment buildings, displaces tens of thousands of Palestinians. As always, I watch the Times to keep up on this.

Nearby, Syria is continuing to change post civil war. Korea could have had a civil war after it almost succumbed to martial law. I think it is still struggling with that.

Also struggling is Los Angeles. Here’s the mayors plan for dealing with the devestation of the LA fires and her plan for rebuild. (More on that, here: Visualizing the Los Angeles wildfires in maps and charts. Plus, RIP David Lynch, a great citizen of that city. Here’s a really good study of him: David Lynch was America’s greatest conservative filmmaker.)

In other news: Oscar season came and went. The film “Emilia Perez” had the most nominations and seemed destined to sweep. And then, destiny took a turn. To see why, read about  the rise and fall of Emilia Perez and how it went so wrong. As for other things going wrong, the film, ‘Joker: Folie à Deux, was fated to lose $150 Million to $200 Million after bombing at the Box Office. Also bombing recently have been Marvel movies. Which is no doubt why Robert Downey Jr  is set to return to Marvel as Doctor Doom.

In sports news, Chicago also bombed as the Blues piled outdoor misery on the in a  6-2 beating during the recent NHL’s Winter Classic. Glad to see that the Classic is still going on as an annual event.

Not bombing but succeeding has been the Apple TV hit, Severance. If you are fed up with work, you should know ‘Severance’ Season 2 puts things in perspective. You should also know it’s great. I can’t wait for season 3.

Finally: one of my favorite Canadian candies,Cherry Blossom, is going away for good. That’s sad.

This was good:  7 planets aligned in the sky above me recently.

Don’t forget with all this news that The news ≠ your life. Also don’t forget this:

 

As always, thanks for reading this. See you again in Summer. Meanwhile, enjoy Spring.

My first year of the pandemic as told in Instagram stories

Instagram stories are an odd thing, at least mine are. I post almost random images of things in my life, not thinking they add up to anything. But if you are living through a dramatic period of time like the first year of the pandemic, and if you collect those images together, as I did here in “Covid: Year 1”, they take on a narrative that was not there when you snapped them and saved them.

The narrative began even before the pandemic was declared. I have photos of me going to Chinatown and eating in many places, because word had gone out that a new illness had broken out in Wuhan, China and people were avoiding that part of the city because people were afraid of coming across someone who had it and then get sick. I was down there to do a small part in keeping some of those places in business by eating as much as I could. (Brave, I know 😊.)

Soon, general precautions started. Hand sanitizer was everywhere, like this one at my work:

Then the pandemic was officially declared in March 2020 and things started to break down. I have photos of the grocery stores being cleared out of flour and potatoes. Toilet paper was scarce. People were queueing up to get into grocers and the liquor store, which both had limited occupancy. Plastic barriers went up, and everything else was shutdown: work, restaurants, stores, gyms. It was a time of lockdown.

To occupy ourselves, we adopted hobbies. People made bread. I drew and made zines. I even wrote some half decent poems.  I continued to blog, and traffic shot up.

We worked at home. Every damn day. Our hair grew long. We finally got masks to go shop for food.

We ordered take out. Lots and lots of take out.  Restaurants pivoted to this to stay alive. Some, like my favorite restaurant Brothers, didn’t make it. Many did, due to hard work and help from the government. We drank pet nat and cremant to celebrate.

In summer we finally ate outside, albeit like this:

Eventually we got to eat indoors for a bit in the fall. Otherwise, if we wanted to celebrate birthdays or Easter, we did it with people in our circle. Collecting with others outside our circle was frowned upon.

We purged our homes to make space. I had a garage sale, and was surprised by the people who showed up and bought things. We were awkwardly happy to see each other, and dealt with money for the first time in ages.

We made the best of it. We watched the blossoms in High Park in Toronto via a TV channel. We watched our talented friends put on shows on Instagram and Youtube and Twitch. We walked on streets closed off to traffic. We banged pots and pans for health care workers. We did not go to the movies, even though the movies tried to open in the summer of that first year.

We downloaded apps to keep track of COVID and to know what to do. We downloaded apps to finally travel in the fall. We wore our masks everywhere. We wore sweat pants almost as much, if not more.

We dealt with bad people. The anti-maskers. The anti-science people. We celebrated when Trump lost.

If we were parents, we tried our best to help our kids. We took them out on Hallowe’en and let them get treats delivered by chutes. We made them get up for virtual classes via Zoom and other technologies. We ordered them Christmas presents online because the stores remained closed in many places like Toronto.

Most of all, we awaited the coming of vaccines and yearned for a normal time. For many, it was the worst of times, losing their livelihoods and their loved ones. Getting ill. For some, it could also be the best of times, as it often was with me.

It was quite the year. Historic. Memorable.

P.S. I wrote at the beginning of 2021 the following post: On recording (why you should think about it differently, why you should resolve to do it), and closed by saying:

Your life has value and meaning. Recordings help show that. So get making them.

I hope you do that, in some form or another. Even if it is a collection of stories on Instagram. It all counts, just as you do.

If you want to keep track of the COVID-19 Wastewater Signal in Ontario, bookmark this

You can either bookmark this post or the actual URL that makes up the image above. The URL (or more accurately, URI) of the image stays the same, I think, but the data changes.

I’m glad it exists. I check the hospitalization and ICU numbers that come out every Thursday and they seem to align with the wastewater signal. That’s an indication for me at any given week how we are doing in terms of COVID-19, despite the dearth of other metrics like case loads or deaths.

While things in the first quarter of 2023 are better than the first quarter of 2022, there are still relatively high levels of COVID-19 in the wastewater. Manage your risk accordingly.

For more on wasterwater data, go here.

My notes and tips on travel before the pandemic, during the pandemic and now in 2023


Travel has changed in the time before, during, and “after” the pandemic. I noticed many differences in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Here’s what I jotted down during my trips in the hopes you and I may find it useful in the future:

  • Masks: last year everyone wore masks during travel, save for when they ate. There were a few idiots who resisted, but mostly people stayed masked. Not now. In 2023, a few people wore masks, but not many. They are no longer mandatory anywhere going to Canada to the US. I think I would have been comfortable wearing a mask in 2023, but I did not.
  • Testing: in the middle of the pandemic you had to get tested before you departed and when you returned. You had to upload that information as well as your vaccine status into various travel apps if you were using them. So far this year you don’t have to do any of that.
  • Bags: baggage continues to be a problem. Expect to pay for all non carry on luggage. Once you could use the kiosk to get your luggage tag. Now some if not all airlines insist you go to a staffer who will weigh your bag and may charge you regardless of its weight. (Remember when lighter bags were free?) As a result people have these smaller roller bags that fit overhead. But now there are more of these bags than there are spaces for them, airlines are making some travellers check their bags (for free for now) at the gate. (This can be a problem if you have only a short time to get to your connecting flight.) Small carry on bags continue to be free for now but you want to insure they fit under the seat: you may get to your seat to find you cannot squeeze it in over you.
  • Boarding passes: you can print your boarding pass at home, but consider doing it at the airport. My printer wasn’t good enough to print the code on it: luckily you can download a QR code in some apps and use that. I did. (Consider taking a screen grab of that QR code: you can show that picture to get through, which is less trouble than displaying it via the app.)
  • Fees/services: Airlines continue to ever slice and dice their service and charge you for everything. (See my bag comment above. Also you can pay to change your seat, get a bigger seat, etc.) The levels of service are ridiculous also. Once you just had first class and economy. Then business class. Now there can be five or more classes. Very classy! 🙂  Pretty soon you might pay by the square footage you take up. As for food, I was surprised how little was available even on 2 hour flights. Consider bringing food onboard: you can’t be certain you’ll get much more than almonds and water.
  • Variability: on my recent trip I was on four different types of planes while travelling to the US. One flight had wide seats that had entertainment (TV, music, movies, games) on them (bring headphones and something to charge your phone). Others had tiny seats I could barely fit into and no entertainment. Other variations: the airline moved me from one seat to another. They kept me in an aisle, but I was surprised to see I moved in the time I had printed my boarding pass. So keep an eye out for that. Of course check for gate changes too.
  • Apps: one thing that is getting better are the airline apps. Get the airline app for the airline you will be travelling on. They will have lots of helpful info in it, including your boarding pass, where your plane is (is it at the gate or on the way), your seat and gate, etc.
  • Security: security seems better…maybe because there are more agents than the worst of the pandemic. Try and have empty pockets before you get to the bins to dump your stuff. Take out your computer and put it in a separate bin with your electronics. Take off all your coats and sweaters, even boots and belts and watches and anything with a hint of metal. I like to have no liquids on me whatsoever, and take an empty bottle to get water later.
  • Canadian customs: still not great but better. In 2022 it was very slow. In 2023 it was very fast. They got rid of the desks the staff sat at and had many of them prepared to deal with you quickly. Not sure that will continue, but it was good to experience this time.
  • Declarations: For people who haven’t travelled in awhile, you no longer have to fill out a declaration card in Toronto. Instead you go to this goofy machine in the custom area, insert your passport, wait for it to take a bad photo of you, and then gets you to declare, upon which it spits out a declaration sheet you give to Canadian customs. (If the machine isn’t automatically reading your passport just go to another one quickly. I’ve had a few bad machines.) As of now the amount you are allowed for under a week but more than a day or two is $800. I still remember the days it was $200.
  • US customs: if you go to the US regularly, get a Nexus card. It makes a huge difference. Otherwise after you get through security, you will need to go through the slow process of going through US customs. Before you get to an agent, know where you are going, why you are going there (business, vacation), the address of where you are staying and  how you know the people you are staying with. One women ahead of me did not know this and kept changing her answer and this got her into a lot of trouble. Be brief, polite and consistent.

(I said “after” the pandemic because it feels like we are through the pandemic in February 2023, even though our problems from COVID-19 are not done.)

P.S. BlogTO recently did a piece on what it’s like to fly on the new planes from Porter Airlines, and the service described was similar to what I experienced for several of the planes, down to this:

Ok, some of the planes had more room than this (thank god), but airlines need to back off a bit. Anyway you can see why I try to get an aisle seat. 🙂

Some very good thoughts (especially at the end) and the usual ramblings on a new year (i.e. the January 2023 edition of my not-a-newsletter newsletter)

We finally closed the book on another pandemic year (2022), and have moved through the first month of 2023. Yay for us!  Is 2023 going to be a pandemic year as well? An endemic year perhaps? We don’t know. One thing for sure: compared to last January, this one has been much gentler.

I think in some ways 2023 may be a transition year. We continue to have transitions when it comes to COVID. We still have new variants like the Kraken (XBB.1.5) that has surged to 40.5% of all infections and rises in hospitalizations. But we take that as a matter of course now. Indeed, there is talk of having annual COVID and flu vaccines. COVID may be more serious than the flu in terms of illness and death, but we may end up approaching them in the same way. No one talks much of flu deaths, and perhaps other than places like Nova Scotia, no one will talk about COVID deaths either. For example, in my province of Ontario it is relatively easy to track hospitalizations related to COVID: it’s relatively hard to report on deaths.

I know because I still have been reporting on COVID hospitalizations every week on twitter for months. My last update was this one:

As I tweeted, the numbers have been dropping recently. Even the ICU numbers, which shot up due to the tripledemic, have declined as the tripledemic declined. Thank god: the pediatric ICUs in November were over 100% full for a time.

So we are transitioning in a positive direction. Good. And not just with COVID.  Everywhere you see spike graphs, like this one for unemployment:

To this one for inflation:

My expectation is that the annual inflation rate will continue to transition and decline in 2023, and interest rates will follow them. That is not to diminish the impact that inflation has had so far. Things have reached the point where people are stealing food and law firms are promising to defend them for free. That said, many, including the New York Times, expect inflation to cool this year. Perhaps it will drop back to where it used to be (i.e. below 3%). If you are skeptical, I recommend this piece in VOX.

Unlike COVID or inflation, not everything has the prospect of improving in 2023. Guns in the US  continue to be a major problem. There is no end in sight for the war in the Ukraine.  NATO is still supportive and continues to send weapons, although it seems like Zelenskyy had to clear the decks before that occurred. As for cryptocurrencies, it may not be a year of recovery for them as the trial of SBF and FTX unfolds. But who knows: maybe this rally will be a difference.

I suspect crypto will stay dormant for many reasons. One big reason is that tech is going to change its focus from Web3 to AI. Sorry Web3. (Sorry metaverse for that matter!) Microsoft alone is spending billions on it. AI will be all anyone will talk about this year. (No one knew what to do with crypto, save techies and rich people flogging NFTs. Everyone I know seems to be using ChatGPT and the like. That’s a key difference). I’ll be writing more about AI in standalone posts in 2023, there will be so much going on.

In 2023 I expect a continuation of the trend of people flooding back into cities after having left them, based on data like this: Annual demographic estimates census metropolitan areas and census. While residences have become scarce (and rents have become high) as a result, people have not been flooding back into offices. So much so that places like NYC are looking to convert office spaces to residential spaces. The problem with the pandemic is that the changes it has forced on society are more rapid than social systems can respond. But respond they will.

Then again, a new surge could reoccur in China. If that occurs, all bets are off. For now my bets are staying on the table.

Finally, thanks for reading this and anything else you read on this blog recently. I appreciate it. I am optimistic for 2023 in many ways. I hope you are too.

Keep wearing your masks when advisable. Get vaxxed to the max.  Try not to pay attention to Elon Musk or the fate of Twitter: that will all play out in due course. Don’t get too hung up about what AI is going to do: that will all play out as well. Continue to read newsletters. Watch streaming. Listen to podcasts. Most importantly: get out and about whenever you can.

There will always be bad people in the world, and bad acts occurring. Do what you can to prevent that from happening, but don’t rob yourself of your capacity for joy as a result. Be a happy warrior on the side of good. Joy is your armour.

Never forget: you have lived and possibly thrived through some of the most dramatically difficult times in history.  You deserve better times ahead.

Enjoy yourself. Live your life robustly. Whenever you feel lethargic, think back to those times of being locked down and unable to even go to a park and sit down.  Let’s go and get it. Here’s to a better year ahead. We are counting on you, 2023.

2022 is done. Thoughts and rambling on the last 365 days (i.e. the December 2022 edition)

Another year over. A semi-pandemic year, in a sense. Covid is still with us, but we did not (so far) get slammed with a bad new variant like we did last year with Omicron. Instead the pandemic is lesser than it was, but greater than the flu in terms of the sickness and death it brings. We still get vaccinated, though less than before. Schools are attended (though  affected),  restaurants are dined in, parties and special events are attended.

You could say things look….normal. But then you can look towards China: they seem to be struggling to deal with COVID lately. Who knows what 2023 will bring? More normal or more like China?

But that’s for 2023. As for last year and what was trending, we can look to  Google which has all its data. One place that was trending alot in 2022: China. China is struggling with both Covid and Xi’s approach to it, as this shows. As for the Chinese leader himself, it was a bad year for Xi, as well as Putin and other global bad guys, sez VOX. And it’s not just the Chinese residents that are having to deal with Xi and his government: Canada has been investigating chinese police stations in Canada. More on that here. I expect China will also trend in 2023. Let’s hope for better reasons.

Other trending events in 2022? Crypto. There was lots of talk about it and people like Sam Bankman-Fried after the collapse of his crypto currency exchange and subsequent arrest. We had stories like this: How I turned $15 000 into $1.2m during the pandemic and then lost it all. Tragic. The overall collapse of the industry has lead to things like bans on crypto mining. That’s good. It has lead to questions around the fundamentals, like: Blockchains What Are They Good For? Last, to keep track of all the shenanigans, I recommend this site: Web3 is Going Just Great. I expect crypto to remain a shambles next year. Time and money will tell.

Elon Musk also managed to trend quite often due to his take over of Twitter and more. He still has fans, but many are disillusioned. After all, his campaign to win back Twitter Advertisers isn’t going well. He was outright booed on stage with Dave Chapelle. (No doubt being a jerk contributed to this.) Tesla stock is tanking. Even his  Starlink is losing money. What a year of failure. I can’t see his 2023 improving either. Hard to believe he was Time’s Man of the Year in 2021!

Because of Musk, people are looking to join other networks, like Mastodon. (BTW, here’s some help on How to Make a Mastodon Account and Join the Fediverse). Some are looking to old networks, like this: the case for returning to tumblr. Some are looking at new ways to socialize online, like this.

Musk was not alone in trending this year due to being a bad guy. Let’s not forget that Kanye West trended as well due to his freakish behavior and antisemitism.

AI was another big trend this year, with things like ChatGPT and stable diffusion (here’s how you can set it up on AWS). We also had stories like this: Madison Square Garden Uses Facial Recognition to Ban Its Owner’s Enemies. Not good. What’s next for AI?  This takes a look. I think we may get an AI winter, but we have 12 months to see if that holds true.

For what it’s worth, Newsletters like Matt Yglesias’s are still going strong, though levelling off I think.

Trends and development aside, here’s some other topics I found interesting and worth being up to close the year:

Assisted death was a grim topic in 2022 in Canada. I remain glued to stories like this: We’re all implicated in Michael Fraser;s decision to die, and  this and this. It all seems like a failure, although this argues that assisted dying is working.

Here’s two good pieces on homelessness:  Did Billions in Spending Make a Dent in Homelessness? And ‘It’s a sin that we all had to leave’: Moving out of Meagher Park.

Need some advice for the new year? Try this: How Much and Where Are You Really Supposed to Tip? Consider this a good approach to  reading. Here’s a good approach to  slowing down, while here’s a good discussion on  Boundaries. Things to avoid:  the biggest wastes of time we regret when we get older.

Things I found interesting in sports this year:

Things I found interesting in general this year:

Finally, here’s some good advice to close out the year: Don’t Treat Your Life as a Project.

Thanks for reading this and anything else you read on this blog in 2022. I appreciate it. I managed to blog about roughly 3000 things on the internet this year. I hope you found some of them useful.

Happy New Year!

Ian Brown catches COVID again and why that’s good

It’s good not because I want him to be ill! Not at all. Rather, it’s good because what came out of that is this fine essay: I caught COVID, again – this time, nobody cares (The Globe and Mail). It nicely catches where we are in this ongoing pandemic. Not just by writing about the disease and what we are doing or not doing about it, but also what else is competing for our attention. I highly recommend it.

I hope by the time you read this Ian is well and none the worse for having suffered through another bout of COVID.

 

On retiring my COVID-19 reporting (for now)


Recently I was reporting COVID-19 data daily. I wrote a program called covid.py that scraped the Ontario.ca Covid web site and and pulled out data for hospitalization and cases. It was a rough but useful gauge to see how COVID was going in Ontario, and I was able to get the information in a snap.

Unfortunately the information is no longer posted on the page I was visiting with my code. The data is out there somewhere in the datasets, but I think I will reconsider things before modifying my code. It is a shame that the data is harder to get though.

All these actions by government organizations to make it harder to get data is a bit frustrating. I read people say: you should track the pandemic and make good decisions. It’s hard to do that though when the information is hard to get.

For more information and data:  Government of Ontario data sets on COVID-19 are here. Government of Canada COVID-19 information is here. More on my code, here.

 

What I learned writing web scrapers last week


I started writing web scrapers last week. If you don’t know, web scraper code can read web pages on the Internet and pull information from them.

I have to thank the Ontario Minister of Health for prompting me to do this. The Minister used to share COVID-19 information on twitter, but then chose recently to no longer do that. You can come to your own conclusions as to why she stopped. As for me, I was irritated by the move. Enough so that I decided to get the information and publish it myself.

Fortunately I had two things to start with. One, this great book: Automate the Boring Stuff with Python. There is a chapter in there on how to scrape web pages using Python and something called Beautiful Soup. Two, I had the minister’s own web site: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/. It had the data I wanted right there! I wrote a little program called covid.py to scrape the data from the page and put it all on one line of output which I share on twitter every day.

Emboldened by my success, I decided to write more code like this. The challenge is finding a web page where the data is clearly marked by some standard HTML. For example, the COVID data I wanted is associated with paragraph HTML tag and it has a class label of  covid-data-block__title and covid-data-block__data. Easy.

My next bit of code was obit.py: this program scrapes the SaltWire web site (Cape Breton Post) for obituaries listed there, and writes it out into HTML. Hey, it’s weird, but again the web pages are easy to scrape. And  it’s an easy way to read my hometown’s obits to see if any of my family or friends have died. Like the Covid data, the obit’s were associated with some html, this time it was a div statement of class sw-obit-list__item. Bingo, I had my ID to get the data.

My last bit of code was somewhat different. The web page I was scraping was on the web but instead of HTML it was a CSV file. In this case I wrote a program called icu.sh to get the latest ICU information on the province of Ontario. (I am concerned Covid is going to come roaring back and the ICUs will fill up again.) ICU.sh runs a curl command and in conjunction with the tail command gets the latest ICU data from an online CSV file. ICU.sh then calls a python program to parse that CSV data and get the ICU information I want.

I learned several lessons from writing this code. First, when it comes to scraping HTML, it’s necessary that the page is well formed and consistent. In the past I tried scraping complex web pages that were not and I failed. With the COVID data and the obituary data,  those pages were that way and I succeeded. Second, not all scraping is going to be from HTML pages: sometimes there will be CSV or other files. Be prepared to deal with the format you are given. Third, once you have the data, decide how you want to publish / present it. For the COVID and ICU data, I present them in a simple manner on twitter. Just the facts, but facts I want to share. For the obit data, that is just fun and for myself. For that, I spit it into a temporary HTML file and open it in a browser to review.

If you want to see the code I wrote, you can go to my repo in Github. Feel free to fork the code and make something of your own. If you want to see some data you might want to play with, Toronto has an open data site, here. Good luck!

 

Why some people in the hospital with COVID despite being vaccinated …

…is explained by this tweet from Dr Jennifer Kwan:

Yes, vaccines great reduce your chances from landing in the hospital from COVID. But it can still happen. Get vaccinated and stay well.

(Image from her tweet)

Notes from having COVID last week

Last Monday (Jan 3) my daughter had a sore throat. She got tested later that evening and was positive for COVID. No one in my house/bubble had symptoms before that, but by Wednesday morning, all but one of us had them.

Our experience with the disease was similar to Liz Renzetti and her family, described here: Opinion: Lessons from the COVID not-so-sick bed – The Globe and Mail.

All of us felt tired and exhibited symptoms associated with COVID. I had a incessant cough, runny nose, stuffy head, and at one point fever then chills. I also slept a lot. Normally I am restless so if I am sleeping that much then I am sick.

We all isolated from each other as much as we could. We had a hepa filter going, and we were all vaccinated (and in some cases boosted). We did what we could to minimize the impact. As it was, the course of the disease took under a week (at least in terms of present symptoms).

People were great in offering us well wishes and close friends offering to bring us food. We were lucky to be able to have food delivered and appreciative of the people who did so.

We only had one rapid antigen test between us. (Good luck getting one of those anywhere.) We were all pretty sick, but we used it and the results were negative. My doctor friend tells me the false negative percentage is 30% (vs 1% false positive).  We acted all we all had COVID anyway and we likely did.

I don’t have any great insights into the disease. Get as vaccinated as you can as soon as you can. Follow local public health guidelines. Take care of yourself and others. Hang in there.

(Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash )

 

A great introduction to Bayes’ Theorem and how it relates to COVID-19

You may have heard references to Bayes’ Theorem in light of the pandemic and wondered how it is relevant. Well I am here to help. First off, here’s a great guide to Bayes’ Theorem from the website MathIsFun.com. Even if you are math phobic, I think you will be able to read that piece and understand it. Secondly, check out the site Varsity and how it explains how Bayes’ Theorem and COVID-19 testing are related. Both are well worth a read.

Learn Bayes’ Theorem. It’s good to help you understand many things in life, including what is happening during the pandemic.

P.S. This related piece at FT.com  explains why you should expect to see vaccinated people in the hospital with covid despite high vaccination rates.

How to go skating in Toronto in the pandemic

Liisa Ladouceur (shown above) has written a thorough guide for anyone who wants to go skating in Toronto during the pandemic. No, you cannot just show up with your blades and start skating. You need to do more. And you should do more, because skating is a great way to enjoy winter in the pandemic era. So read this: Where to go skating in Toronto in 2020 by Liisa Wanders. Then get out there! Maybe I will see you at a socially safe distance with a fun mask on too.

Anti COVID Posters!

This is a smart reuse of old VD posters to warn against the dangers of a new biological thread: COVID. Via The Daily Heller:

Adrian Wilson, provocateur par excellence, recently revisited a vintage poster prevention campaign against VD used during World War II, and remixed the various messages into a current cautionary attack on CoViD-19. This genre of repurposing images and words is not new or novel, but when accomplished satirically and wittily, as Wilson has done below, it can be an effective public messaging tool.

 

For more of Wilson’s work, click on the link above. It’s great.

On the COVID fee and the airlinerization of your bill


If you are concerned about the cost of things, then you should know about this: The COVID fee, or why many services could cost you more as Toronto reopens for business | CBC News.

I get the COVID fee. It makes sense for businesses dealing with the cost of the pandemic. But it got me thinking about how we might start seeing the airlinerization of bills.

I thought of that concept when I started to get food from Uber Eats. On top of the cost of the meals is 3 or 4 fees, not including tips. Now with the COVID fee we may start seeing other service companies stacking additional costs onto the initial cost.

This reminds me of the airline industry. To compete, the fares for flights are stripped of costs. Then after you are about to pay, you find out the true cost of things. Again, I get it. It makes sense. It makes me wary of using a service that does this.

It may seem good for businesses to charge several additional fees. The listed cost seems low and attracts customers. It’s only when you get the bill do you see what you are truly paying. In my case yesterday I didn’t even see the COVID fee until I got home. The tip is added as a percentage on top of all the fees as well. My expected costs and my actual costs were wildly out of sync. This did not leave me with a good feeling for the place I just visited. I feel they need to be more transparent with this. (It is not listed on their website or on the Square terminal when I paid).

If the cost is not a concern for you, then feel free to ignore it. But for many people buying goods and services in the pandemic, caveat emptor.

(Photo by CardMapr on Unsplash)

I hope Americans still on the fence about travelling for Thanksgiving read this


I understand the importance of Thanksgiving in the US. It’s a big deal, and a big part of that is coming together. But coming together might mean spreading COVID-19, not just with the people you visit, but others after the visit.

Because of that, I hope you will stay in your respective dwellings and take advantage of this offer from Zoom: Thanksgiving on Zoom: Your family get-together can surpass 40 minutes.

Normally if you have a free Zoom account, you are limited to how long your online session can last. Happily, Zoom is waiving that for this year. It’s a great offer: you should jump on it.

I hope people will meet up virtually in the US this Thanksgiving. It will make a world of difference.

Is the weekend dead?

You might think so if you read this piece in the New York Times.

It has definitely changed, just like so much has changed during the pandemic. I predict the weekend will come back in time. Meanwhile, consider ways to make you day / days different enough so that it doesn’t just feel like one big endless day. It will take some creativity, but it’s worth it.

Your weekend is coming up: find ways to make those days stand out from the others.